Kenya’s foreign reserves have grown and strengthened over the past year, providing a critical shield against external shocks.However, the report sternly warned that the gains are overshadowed by persistent fiscal vulnerabilities and a growing risk of debt distress.
In the World Bank Kenya economic update, the Kenyan Shilling has held its own against the US dollar, maintaining an average exchange rate of Ksh129.2 per USD over the 12 months to September 2025.
This stability, however, is by far different from the Kenyan shilling’s performance against other major currencies where depreciation has been evident since early 2025.
Data from the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) shows that the shilling weakened against the Pound Sterling and Euro, which CBK attributed to the global currency dynamics and Kenya’s exposure to external markets.
Kenya’s foreign exchange reserves surged to an all-time high of USD 12.19 billion (Ksh 1.57 trillion) as of October 30, 2025, according to the Central Bank of Kenya.This level represents 5.3 months of import cover, well above the statutory minimum of four months.
The World Bank attributed this to strong diaspora payments, improved export earnings, and inflows from Eurobond issuance and development partners.
Earlier in September, reserves stood at USD 10.86 billion (Ksh1.40 trillion), and in May at USD 10.3 billion (Ksh1.33 trillion), clearly showing Kenya’s upward trend throughout the year.
World Bank Kenya noted that while these reserves provide a critical buffer against external shocks, they do not offset Kenya’s rising debt burden, which remains the country’s key vulnerability.
Despite the positive growth in forex reserves, the World Bank has stated that Kenya’s debt profile remains a very pressing concern.Public debt climbed to 68.8% of GDP in FY2024/25, up from 67.5% in FY2023/24, according to official data, with domestic debt constituting 53.6% of the total, while net domestic borrowing reached 5.0% of GDP.
Kenya’s real GDP is projected to expand by 4.9% annually between 2025 and 2027, according to the World Bank’s latest update.
This marks an upward revision from the May 2025 forecast of 4.3% and the October Macro-Poverty Outlook estimate of 4.5%.
The World Bank notes that private consumption and public investment will remain key drivers of growth, supported by stable remittances and easing inflationary pressures.
However, the projected growth is facing several risks, including global commodity price volatility, tightening financial conditions, and fiscal constraints linked to rising debt service costs.
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